Soviet Spacecraft Kosmos 482 was launched by the USSR on March 31, 1972 as part of the Venera Venus exploration program. The mission’s goal was to send a lander to Venus (it was intended to be the Venera 9 missionen). However, a second-stage rocket timer misfired and the spacecraft never escaped Earth’s gravity. Instead, it broke into pieces and remained in low Earth orbit for 53 years. (Its designation was changed to “Kosmos 482” when it failed to depart Earth orbi.) Only the probe’s one-ton descent capsule – the actual Venus lander – is still expected to return. Estimates place its mass at roughly 480–500 kg and about 1 meter in diameter.
Artist’s recreation of a Soviet Venera lander on Venus, similar in design to the Kosmos 482 descent module. Kosmos 482 was built as a twin of the Venera 8 spacecraft.
Though never reaching Venus, Kosmos 482’s design was virtually identical to the successful Venera probes. For example, its sister ship Venera 8 landed on Venus in 1972 and sent back data for nearly an hour. After liftoff from Baikonur, Kosmos 482’s Blok L upper stage shut down early, leaving the capsule in a 195×9800 km orbit. Pieces of that failed launch fell back on Earth decades ago: in April 1972 titanium “space balls” (fuel spheres from the rocket) were found in New Zealand farmland. The main bus of the Venera launcher decayed by 1981, leaving only the heavy descent module in orbit.
Current Trajectory and Re-entry Predictions
Because Kosmos 482 has been orbiting for over five decades, atmospheric drag has steadily lowered its orbit. Today its perigee (closest approach) is around 125–140 km and dropping. Space agencies and satellite trackers worldwide have been monitoring it. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network and the Aerospace Corporation use radar data to update decay forecasts. According to ESA’s Space Debris Office, the capsule is expected to re-enter on May 10, 2025 (UTC) in the early morning hours. The latest ESA prediction (May 9) gave 06:37 UTC ±3.3 h as the estimated entry time. Other models agree on a May 10 reentry: Marco Langbroek at TU Delft (who has tracked this probe for years) says it should come down around May 9–10.
Exact timing is hard to pin down. As Aerospace Corp engineer Bill Barrett explains, “it’s very hard just to predict when something like this is going to come back…[it’s] one of the hardest things in orbital mechanics”. Solar activity can puff up Earth’s upper atmosphere, altering drag. Even small “subtle nuances” in atmospheric density or the probe’s orientation can shift re-entry by hours. In fact, by the morning of May 10 (UTC) ESA reported the probe was not seen on a predicted radar pass, suggesting it likely already reentered early that day. As of midday UTC on May 10, official word is it “most likely” came down during a 06:00–07:30 UTC window. However, until debris is found (if any remains), exact confirmation is pending.
Where Will Kosmos 482 Fall?
With an orbital inclination of about 52°, Kosmos 482 could re-enter anywhere on Earth between latitudes 52° N and 52° S. This covers much of the planet’s populated areas as well as vast ocean regions. Aerospace Corporation has published predicted ground tracks that zig-zag across this wide band. The capsule completes an orbit roughly every 90 minutes, so each successive pass shifts its potential impact line. Greg Henning of Aerospace Corp notes that “gaps between [these ground tracks] are basically safe. Anything further north or further south is basically safe”
True-color view of Earth from space. Kosmos 482’s re-entry corridor spans the central band of Earth (within ~52° of the equator), so the capsule could come down over land or water in that zone.
Because 71% of Earth’s surface is ocean, the most likely scenario is that Kosmos 482 will splash down in water. If fragments do survive to ground, they will probably fall in the Pacific or Atlantic (among other oceans). Even if it lands on solid ground, experts stress the chance of hitting anyone is extremely low. Barrett and other analysts calculate a risk of serious injury at about 1 in 25,000. On present predictions, only sparsely populated regions are in the current re-entry window. For example, Barrett notes that on the current orbits the probe does not pass over any major cities in Australia, so an Australian impact (if it occurs) would likely be in open land.
Aerospace Corp engineer Marlon Sorge likens the capsule’s final descent to “just a cannonball” – it’s not expected to break up into a big debris cloud. Kosmos 482 was built to survive the thick Venus atmosphere (up to 100 atm), so parts of it could remain intact in re-entry. However, the entry speed is relatively slow (~65–70 m/s) because the orbit is shallow, so much of it will burn up. Residual fragments, if any, might fall at roughly 250 km/h. Even then, Marco Langbroek warns that the parachute intended for Venus is almost certainly non-functional now – “I wouldn’t bet on that working” – so any surviving piece would “come down hard”
Expert Insights
Space agencies and researchers have been providing updates and context. ESA’s Space Debris Office has a live blog on this event. They state: “On 10 May, an uncontrolled reentry will take place of the Cosmos-482 descent craft… It was meant to land on Venus, but its launcher never escaped Earth’s gravity”. ESA highlights that the capsule will fall somewhere between 52° N and 52° S, and their latest data points to a 06:30–08:30 UTC re-entry window on May 10.
Astrodynamics experts agree it’s largely a guessing game until it happens. Aerospace Corporation’s Greg Henning says each new tracking update will narrow the window, but “there’s still going to be multiple ground tracks leading up to that final prediction”. Asia Pacific Aerospace consultant Bill Barrett adds that solar weather is a wild card: if solar activity increases, the craft could dip earlier; if it’s calm, later. He notes, “It’s very hard to predict when something like this is going to come back”.
Satellite observer Marco Langbroek (TU Delft) has modeled Kosmos 482’s fate using the TUDAT software. He explains that, with a 51.7° inclination, re-entry “can occur anywhere between 52° N and 52° S”. Langbroek and colleagues have been updating predictions; as of May 9 he reported the re-entry would likely happen May 10 around 06:26 UTC. Once the capsule is no longer on radar, experts will conclude it has burned up or impacted. ESA’s post of May 10 notes they did not detect it on a predicted 07:32 UTC pass, implying it already came down.
What If You See or Find Debris?
Authorities emphasize that no special safety actions are needed for the general public. Space debris re-entries are quite common and mostly harmless. As ESA and Aerospace Corp point out, the risk to people is vanishingly small. However, if you believe you have witnessed the fireball of a re-entering object or even found a piece of hardware, the advice is simple: do not touch it and report it to local authorities. The material could still be hot or hazardous, and experts will want to analyze any recovered fragments. (In Australia, for example, reporters ask finders to notify the federal government.)
FAQ
- What exactly is Kosmos 482? Kosmos 482 is the leftover descent capsule of a Soviet Venus spacecraft launched in 1972. It was supposed to land on Venus (as part of the Venera program) but a rocket error stranded it in Earth orbit.
- Why is it re-entering now? Its orbit has decayed over 53 years due to atmospheric drag. Predictions now say the capsule will dip into the atmosphere on May 10, 2025, as its orbit falls below ~125 km.
- When and where will it come down? Current forecasts point to around 06:30–08:30 UTC on May 10, but this could shift. It could re-enter anywhere between 52° N and 52° S latitude. That means any point around the globe in a broad equatorial belt – most likely over ocean.
- Could it hit someone or damage property? Extremely unlikely. Models give only about a 1-in-25,000 chance of any casualty. The capsule will mostly burn up; any surviving pieces (perhaps a few tens of kg total) will fall at high speed. In the very unlikely event fragments do hit the ground in a populated area, the risk of injury is very low.
- Is it radioactive or toxic? No. Kosmos 482 was not nuclear-powered; it used regular batteries and instruments. It carries no deadly fuel or plutonium (unlike some deep-space probes). Any debris should be treated as inert metal.
- How do experts track it? Agencies like the U.S. Space Surveillance Network, ESA’s Space Debris Office, and independent observers (e.g. Marco Langbroek) use radar and telescopes to follow its orbit. They update re-entry predictions as new data comes in.
- What if it has already re-entered? As of May 10 evening (UTC), ESA’s latest update indicates Kosmos 482 likely re-entered earlier that morning. Observers around the Pacific Rim are checking for any reports of fireballs. If confirmed, it would mean tonight has passed without incident, or it already burned up. But until we see debris (if any), some uncertainty remains.
- Can I see it fall or find it? The re-entry fireball will be very brief and may not be visible except to those in the exact path (if skies are clear). Most of it will burn high in the atmosphere. If any fragment survives, it will be small (roughly car-size or smaller) and fall quickly. If you happen to see something or find a metal fragment, keep a safe distance and report it to authorities.